Chapter 5: Score Opportunities Without Pretending the Score Is Truth

A score makes assumptions visible. It does not make them true.

Score each candidate opportunity from zero to five on five dimensions:

1. Business impact — if it works, how much does the outcome matter?
2. Likelihood of success — given the process, data, technology, and constraints, how plausible is improvement?
3. Adoption friction — how likely are the people involved to use the changed capability? Five means low friction and easy adoption.
4. Time to evidence — how quickly can the company learn something decision-worthy? Five means evidence arrives quickly.
5. Cost and risk — how favorable is the experiment's cost and risk? Five means low cost and contained risk.

Write one sentence of evidence beside every score. A number without a reason is decoration.