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Part Four: Buy Evidence — Chapter 7: The Smallest Useful Experiment
Agree before seeing the result
The evidence standard gives everyone a fair way to interpret the experiment. Agree on it before starting, while you're still able to discuss disappointing results without defending the effort already spent.
Use a range if that's more honest than a single threshold, and include quality, adoption, and risk alongside speed. A faster process that creates more expensive mistakes may leave the business worse off.
Write down what each result would mean:
- Below the lower boundary: stop or redesign.
- Inside the uncertain band: continue only to answer a named uncertainty.
- Above the decision boundary: prepare the investment case.
- Strong result plus repeatable adoption: consider industrialization.
Carry those rules onto the card and into the decision meeting. If the first step is baseline gathering, agree on what you need to observe and the decision it will inform before claiming an improvement standard is ready.