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Part Four: Buy Evidence — Chapter 7: The Smallest Useful Experiment

Agree before seeing the result

Set the evidence standard before the experiment begins. Otherwise enthusiasm and sunk cost will move the goalposts.

The standard can be a range. It should account for quality, adoption, and risk, not only speed. A process that becomes faster while producing more expensive mistakes did not improve.

Write what happens under each result:

  • Below the lower boundary: stop or redesign.
  • Inside the uncertain band: continue only to answer a named uncertainty.
  • Above the decision boundary: prepare the investment case.
  • Strong result plus repeatable adoption: consider industrialization.