Part Three: Choose the Bet — Chapter 5: Score Opportunities Without Pretending the Score Is Truth
Four portfolio positions
The Compass model adds the five whole-number ratings for a total from 0 to 25. It applies the hard gates first, then assigns one of four positions. The calculation is:
total = business_impact + likelihood + adoption_friction + time_to_evidence + cost_and_risk
| Condition, checked in this order | Provisional band |
|---|---|
| Business impact or adoption friction = 0 or 1, or likelihood of success = 0, whatever the total | NOT YET |
| Total 21–25, with all gates passed | RUN — THIS WEEK |
| Total 17–20, with all gates passed | RUN — 2 WEEKS |
| Total 13–16 and business impact at least 4, with all gates passed | INVEST AFTER EVIDENCE |
| All remaining combinations | NOT YET |
The working meaning of those positions is:
- Run—this week. The ratings suggest an important, plausible, adoptable opportunity with a contained way to learn quickly. Check that evidence, permission, and capacity support the proposed step before starting it.
- Run—two weeks. The candidate looks promising, with preparation to consider before a valid experiment can begin.
- Invest after evidence. The potential outcome matters, but the next task is to design evidence that could justify a later commitment.
- Not yet. The present conditions don't support proceeding as scored. Record what must become true before reconsidering.
Every band is provisional. It reflects the supplied ratings, verifies nothing, and gives no investment approval. A high total can still lead you to gather a baseline, prepare, or wait. The dates in the labels guide attention; they don't override missing access, permission, evidence, or room in the team's week.
Record both the calculated band and the owner's actual next decision. Include the alternatives left for later and their re-entry conditions. That lets the numbers help you think without concealing the judgment that matters.